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Contains reports on four research projects.National Science Foundation (Grant G-16526)National Institutes of Health (Grant MH-04737-03)National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NsG-496)Lincoln Laboratory (Purchase Order DDL BB-107)United States Air Force (Contract AF19(628)-500

Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout \u3ci\u3eSalvelinus confluentus\u3c/i\u3e in a Rocky Mountain Watersehd, U.S.A.

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments

Phylogenetic Analysis Of Chloroplast Dna Restriction Site Data At Higher Taxonomic Levels: An Example From The Asteraceae

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137492/1/evo04314.pd

Fire and Fish Dynamics in a Changing Climate: Broad- and Local-Scale Effects of Fire-Induced Water Temperature Changes on Native and Nonnative Fish Communities

Fire is a key natural disturbance that affects the distribution and abundance of native fishes in the Rocky Mountain West. In the absence of migratory individuals from undisturbed portions of a watershed, persistence of native fish populations depends on the conditions of the post-fire stream environment. Stream temperatures typically warm after fire, and remain elevated until riparian vegetation recovers. An additional threat to native species is that nonnative fishes have invaded many waters, and these species tolerate or prefer warmer water temperatures. Thus, forecasting the long-term effects of fire on native fish populations requires an understanding of fire dynamics (size, distribution, frequency, and severity), the extent and location of changes in riparian forest structure and time to recovery, changes in stream temperatures associated with these forest changes, and how native and nonnative fish respond to changes in water temperature. To perform spatially explicit simulation modeling that examined the relations among fire disturbance, stream temperature, and fish communities, we upgraded and then linked the fire-forest succession model FireBGCv2 to a stream temperature model to project changes in water temperature in the East Fork Bitterroot River basin in Montana under an array of climate and fire management scenarios. Model projections indicated that although climate led to increases in fire severity, frequency, or size, water temperature increases at the basin scale were primarily a consequence of climate-driven atmospheric warming rather than changes in fire regime. Consequently, variation in fire management—fuel treatment or fire suppression—had little effect at this scale, but assumed greater importance at the scale of riparian stands. By revisiting a large number of previously sampled sites in the East Fork Bitterroot River basin in Montana, we evaluated whether bull trout persistence and other native and nonnative fish distributions were related to temperature changes associated with fire and recent climatic trends. Although fires were related to marked increases in summer water temperatures, these changes had a positive effect (westslope cutthroat trout) or a negligible effect (bull trout) on the abundance and distribution of native fish species, whereas the abundance of nonnative brook trout markedly declined in some instances. Fire-related changes in factors other than the thermal regime may have contributed to these patterns. In contrast, at the scale of the entire basin we observed an upward-directed contraction in the distribution of bull trout that was unrelated to fire. We concluded that this may be a response to temperature increases related to climate change

Fire and Fish Dynamics in a Changing Climate: Broad- and Local-Scale Effects of Fire-Induced Water Temperature Changes on Native and Nonnative Fish Communities

Fire is a key natural disturbance that affects the distribution and abundance of native fishes in the Rocky Mountain West. In the absence of migratory individuals from undisturbed portions of a watershed, persistence of native fish populations depends on the conditions of the post-fire stream environment. Stream temperatures typically warm after fire, and remain elevated until riparian vegetation recovers. An additional threat to native species is that nonnative fishes have invaded many waters, and these species tolerate or prefer warmer water temperatures. Thus, forecasting the long-term effects of fire on native fish populations requires an understanding of fire dynamics (size, distribution, frequency, and severity), the extent and location of changes in riparian forest structure and time to recovery, changes in stream temperatures associated with these forest changes, and how native and nonnative fish respond to changes in water temperature. To perform spatially explicit simulation modeling that examined the relations among fire disturbance, stream temperature, and fish communities, we upgraded and then linked the fire-forest succession model FireBGCv2 to a stream temperature model to project changes in water temperature in the East Fork Bitterroot River basin in Montana under an array of climate and fire management scenarios. Model projections indicated that although climate led to increases in fire severity, frequency, or size, water temperature increases at the basin scale were primarily a consequence of climate-driven atmospheric warming rather than changes in fire regime. Consequently, variation in fire management—fuel treatment or fire suppression—had little effect at this scale, but assumed greater importance at the scale of riparian stands. By revisiting a large number of previously sampled sites in the East Fork Bitterroot River basin in Montana, we evaluated whether bull trout persistence and other native and nonnative fish distributions were related to temperature changes associated with fire and recent climatic trends. Although fires were related to marked increases in summer water temperatures, these changes had a positive effect (westslope cutthroat trout) or a negligible effect (bull trout) on the abundance and distribution of native fish species, whereas the abundance of nonnative brook trout markedly declined in some instances. Fire-related changes in factors other than the thermal regime may have contributed to these patterns. In contrast, at the scale of the entire basin we observed an upward-directed contraction in the distribution of bull trout that was unrelated to fire. We concluded that this may be a response to temperature increases related to climate change

Conservation Status and Habitat Use of the West Virginia Spring Salamander (Gyrinophilus Subterraneus) and Spring Salamander (G. Porphyriticus) in General Davis Cave, Greenbrier Co., West Virginia

The West Virginia Spring Salamander (Gyrinophilus subterraneus) is one of four obligate cave-dwelling species of plethodontid salamanders found east of the Mississippi River in the United States. This species is endemic to a single cave system; General Davis Cave, in Greenbrier Co., West Virginia, where it is syntopic with the closely-related Spring Salamander (G. porphyriticus). Accordingly, the West Virginia Spring Salamander is a species of critical conservation concern. Because of it\u27s conservation status and lack of data regarding the ecology and life history, particularly about population trends, we present data on relative abundance of and habitat use by the West Virginia Spring Salamander during a 33-year period from 1975-2008. Specifically we address: (1) stability of the population during the last 33 years; (2) variation in habitat use by life stage and between species (Spring Salamanders and West Virginia Spring Salamanders); (3) plausibility of neoteny in the West Virginia Spring Salamander; and (4) the conservation status of the West Virginia Spring Salamander. We recorded 324 observations of Gyrinophilus salamanders, of which 192 were West Virginia Spring Salamanders, within the study area during 17 surveys. While both larval and metamorphosed West Virginia Spring Salamanders were encountered, only metamorphosed Spring Salamanders were observed. West Virginia Spring Salamander larvae were encountered in pools more often than in riffle habitat. Spring Salamanders were encountered more often in terrestrial habitats versus aquatic habitats. West Virginia Spring Salamanders reach relatively large size before metamorphosing, with some individuals becoming sexual mature as larvae. It remains unknown whether any of these individuals reproduce, however. Although the populations of both species appear to be stable over the past 33 years and not in immediate danger of extinction, the West Virginia Spring Salamander is still in critical conservation concern because of it\u27s extremely restricted distribution and current threats to the cave system it resides in

An Evolutionary Reduction Principle for Mutation Rates at Multiple Loci

A model of mutation rate evolution for multiple loci under arbitrary selection is analyzed. Results are obtained using techniques from Karlin (1982) that overcome the weak selection constraints needed for tractability in prior studies of multilocus event models. A multivariate form of the reduction principle is found: reduction results at individual loci combine topologically to produce a surface of mutation rate alterations that are neutral for a new modifier allele. New mutation rates survive if and only if they fall below this surface - a generalization of the hyperplane found by Zhivotovsky et al. (1994) for a multilocus recombination modifier. Increases in mutation rates at some loci may evolve if compensated for by decreases at other loci. The strength of selection on the modifier scales in proportion to the number of germline cell divisions, and increases with the number of loci affected. Loci that do not make a difference to marginal fitnesses at equilibrium are not subject to the reduction principle, and under fine tuning of mutation rates would be expected to have higher mutation rates than loci in mutation-selection balance. Other results include the nonexistence of 'viability analogous, Hardy-Weinberg' modifier polymorphisms under multiplicative mutation, and the sufficiency of average transmission rates to encapsulate the effect of modifier polymorphisms on the transmission of loci under selection. A conjecture is offered regarding situations, like recombination in the presence of mutation, that exhibit departures from the reduction principle. Constraints for tractability are: tight linkage of all loci, initial fixation at the modifier locus, and mutation distributions comprising transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains.Comment: v3: Final corrections. v2: Revised title, reworked and expanded introductory and discussion sections, added corollaries, new results on modifier polymorphisms, minor corrections. 49 pages, 64 reference